ОСНОВНЫЕ ВЫВОДЫ

1. Распад оледенения КР, равно, как и всей ЦА, происходит преимущественно по естественным причинам, обусловленными глобальным потеплением.
2. Повышение водности рек ледниковых долин в последние десятилетия является следствием интенсивного распада оледенения и в обозримом будущем в связи с дальнейшим распадом оледенения произойдет переломный момент в водности этих рек.
3. Ледники ЦА не исчезнут полностью, а уйдут под моренный чехол и будут отдавать воду, хотя и меньшими темпами, нежели открытые ледники.
4. Запасы льда в забронированных ледниках больше, чем в открытых. Поэтому ледовые ресурсы КР необходимо переоценить с учетом еще не учтенных запасов льда в забронированных ледниках.
5. При проявляющемся глобальном климатическом потеплении в долгосрочной перспективе следует ожидать преимущественно понижения уровня озера Иссык-Куль, которое скажется не только на климате в котловине, но и на экосистеме самого озера.
6. Необходимо определить Приоритет использования водных ресурсов в Иссык-Кульской котловине в дальнейшей перспективе: либо рекреация, либо сельскохозяйственное производство.

                                  ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ

       Для получения более объективной картины, освещенной в выше изложенных выводах, необходимо продолжить выполняющиеся в ТШВНЦ наблюдения и исследования.

                                         Публикации

       Некоторые важные публикации (Impact Factor) ТШВНЦ в кооперации с зарубежными исследователями и краткое изложение их содержания.

Hydrologic controls and water vulnerabilities in the Naryn River basin, Kyrgyzstan: a case study of water stressors in Central Asia

Alice F. Hill^1,2,*, Cholpon Kozubekovna Minbaeva², Alana M. Wilson^1,2, Rysbek Satylkanov³

¹   University of Colorado-Boulder Geography department

²   Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

³   Kyrgyz Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower

*  Correspondence: alice.hill@colorado.edu; Tel.: +1-720-369-3009

Academic Editor: name

Received: date; Accepted: date; Published: date

Abstract: Water vulnerabilities in Central Asia are affected by a complex combination of climate sensitive water sources, trans-boundary political tensions, infrastructure deficiencies and a lack of water management organization from community to federal levels. This study aims to clarify the drivers of water stress across the 440kmNaryn River basin, headwater stem to the Syr Darya and the disappearing North Aral Sea. We use a combination of human and physical geography approachesto understand the meltwater-controlled hydrology of the system (using hydrochemical mixing models) as well as the human-water experience (via community surveys). Current water stress is primarily a function of water management and access issues resulting from the clunky transition from Soviet era large-scale agriculture to post-Soviet small plot farming.  Snow and ice meltwaters play a dominant role in the surface and ground water supplies to downstream communities across the study’s 4220m elevation gradient, so future increases to water stress due to changes in volume and timing of water supply is likely given frozen waters’ high sensitivity to warming temperatures. The combined influence of social, political and climate induced pressures on water supplies in the Naryn basin suggest the need for proactive planning and adaptation strategies, and warrant concern for similar melt-sourced Central Asian watersheds.

Keywords: mountain hydrology; glacial runoff; meltwater; cryosphere; groundwater; downstream water vulnerability; Central Asia; Aral Sea basin

remote sensing                                                                                                       

Absolute calibration / validation of the altimeters on sentinel-3A and Jason-3 over the lake

Issykkul.

J-F Cretaux(1), M. Bergé-Nguyen(1), S. Calmant(2), N. Jamangulova(3), R. Satylkanov(3), F. Lyard(4), F. Perosanz(5), J. Verron(6), A. SamineMontazem(1,7), G. Le Guilcher(8), D.Leroux(9), J. Barrie(9), P. Maisongrande(1) and P. Bonnefond(10)

(1) LEGOS/CNES, Toulouse, France

(2) LEGOS/IRD, Toulouse, France

(3) IWPB, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

(4) LEGOS/CNRSToulouse, France

(5) GET/CNES, Toulouse, France

(?) IGE/CNRS, Grenoble, France

(7) LEGOS/UPS, Toulouse, France

(8) GIM, Paris, France

(9) CNRM/Meteo France, Toulouse, France

(10)SYRTE, Observatoire de Paris, PSL Research University, CNRS, Sorbonne Universités,UPMC Univ. Paris 06, LNE, Paris, France

                   Abstract

       Within the framework of the Jason-2 mission, a Calibration / Validation (C/V) project, named FOAM, including continental waters (Rivers and lakes) has been setup in 2007. It includes installation of permanent sites (weather stations, limnigraphs, GPS reference points) and regular field campaigns and it has been extended to each of the recent altimeters in orbit: Saral/AltikA (Verron et al., 2018), Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A. The lake Issykkul in Kyrgyzstanis part of this network of C/V sites. In 2016 and 2017, three campaigns have been organized over this lake in order to estimate the absolute bias of the nadir altimeter on Jason-3 which operates in Low Resolution Mode (LRM) and the altimeter onboard Sentinel-3A which operates in SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) mode. We also have evaluated the accuracy of these two altimeters over lakes. C/V studies using sites in the ocean have a long history and protocols are well established. Over lakes this is more recent but in turn it allows addressing other problems such as the performance of the various retracking algorithms and evaluating the accuracy of the geophysical corrections. This is achievable when measurements of specific and numerous field campaigns and ground permanent network of level gauges and weather stations are processed to detect biases, errors in the geophysical corrections, and accuracy of altimeters.

Advances in Space Research                                                     

Mapping Mean Lake Surface from satellite altimetry and GPS kinematic survey.

Manuscript Number:

Article Type: ES — Earth Sciences

Keywords: Satellite altimetry; GPS survey; mean lake surface; geoid

Corresponding Author: jean-francoisCretaux CNES Toulouse, FRANCE

First Author: Muriel Berge-Nguyen

Order of Authors: Muriel Berge-Nguyen, jean-francoisCretaux, Stephane Calmant, Sara Fleury, Rysbek Satylkanov, Dokturbek Chontoev, Pascal Bonnefond

Abstract: Lake water height is a key variable in water cycle and climate change studies, which is achievable using satellite altimetry constellation. A method based on data processing of altimetry from several satellites has been developed to interpolate mean lake surface (MLS) over a set of 22 big lakes distributed on the Earth. It has been applied on nadir radar altimeters in Low Resolution Mode (LRM: Jason-3, Saral/AltiKa, CryoSat-2) in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mode (Sentinel-3A), and in SAR interferometric (SARin) mode (CryoSat-2), and on laser altimetry (ICESat). Validation of the method has been performed using a set of kinematic GPS height profiles from

     18 field campaigns over the lake Issykkul, by comparison of altimetry’s height at crossover points for the other lakes and using the laser altimetry on ICESat-2 mission. The precision reached ranges from 3 to 7 cm RMS (Root Mean Square) depending on the lakes. Currently, lake water level inferred from satellite altimetry is provided withrespect to an ellipsoid. Ellipsoidal heights are converted into orthométric heights using geoid models interpolated along the satellite tracks. These global geoid models were inferred from geodetic satellite missions coupled with absolute and regional anomaly gravity data sets spread over the Earth. However, the spatial resolution of the currentgeoid models does not allow capturing short wavelength undulations that may reach decimeters in mountaineering regions or for rift lakes (Baikal, Issykkul, Malawi, Tanganika). We interpolate in this work the geoid height anomalies with three recent geoid models, the EGM2008, XGM2016 and EIGEN-6C4d, and compare them with the Mean Surface of 22 lakes calculated using satellite altimetry. Assuming that MLS mimics the local undulations of the geoid, our study shows that over a large set of lakes, short wavelength undulations of the geoid in poorly sampled areas such as Lakes can be derived using satellite altimetry. The models used in this study present very similar geographical patterns when compared to MLS. The precision of the models largely depends on the location of the lakes and is about 18 cm (Pavlis et al., 2012), in average over the Earth. MLS can serve as a validation dataset for any future geoid model. It will also be useful for validation of the future mission SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) which will measure and map water heights over the lakes with a high horizontal resolution of 250 by 250 meters.

Криосфера Земли, 2019, т. XXIII, № 3, с. 33–51

http://www.izdatgeo.ru

УДК 551.89 551.583.7 DOI: 10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2019-3(33-51)

МОДЕЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ЭВОЛЮЦИИ ГОРНЫХ ЛЕДНИКОВ НА ПРИМЕРЕ ЛЕДНИКА САРЫТОР (ВНУТРЕННИЙ ТЯНЬШАНЬ)

О.О. Рыбак^1–3, Е.А. Рыбак^1,2, Н.А. Яицкая^1,2, В.В. Поповнин⁴, И.И. Лаврентьев⁵,

Р. Сатылканов⁶, Б. Жакеев⁷

1 Сочинский научно-исследовательский центр РАН, 354000, Сочи, ул. Театральная, 8а, Россия; o.o.rybak@gmail.com

2 Филиал Института природно-технических систем, 354024, Сочи, Курортный просп., 99/18, Россия

3 Свободный университет Брюсселя, Отдел наук о земной системе и географии, B-1050, Брюссель, Плейнлаан, 2, Бельгия

4 Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, географический ф-т,119991, Москва, Ленинские горы, 1, Россия

5 Институт географии РАН, 119017, Москва, Старомонетный пер., 29, Россия

6 Тянь-Шанский высокогорный научный центр Института водных проблем и гидроэнергетики НАН КР, 722400, с. Кызыл-Суу, ул. Чикаева, 9, Иссык-Кульская обл., Кыргызская Республика

7 Институт водных проблем и гидроэнергетики НАН КР, 720033, Бишкек, ул. Фрунзе, 533, Кыргызская Республика

        Рассмотрено математическое моделирование эволюции ледника Сары-Тор массива Ак-Шийрак Внутреннего Тянь-Шаня в условиях меняющегося климата. Приведены структура модели и постановка численных экспериментов. Для калибровки и валидации модели применены материалы снегомерных и абляционных наблюдений 2014–2016 гг. Длительность серии из 10 прогностических численных экспериментов составила 90 модельных лет. В качестве входной климатической информации использованыданные наблюдений за температурой воздуха и осадками на расположенной вблизи метеостанции Тянь-Шань–Кумтор. В схематических сценариях климатических изменений среднесуточная приземная температура воздуха растет со скоростью 0–4 °С/100 лет. Современная конфигурация ледника находится в дисбалансе с климатом 2014–2016 гг., вследствие чего его площадь и объем предположительно будут сокращаться до 2100 г. При экстремальных темпах роста температуры (+4 °С/100 лет) ледник почти полностью исчезнет к концу расчетного периода, а ледниковый сток после первоначального незначительного роста в первой половине экспериментов быстро сократится. Несмотря на неизбежные упрощения реальных природных условий в математической модели, полученные результаты будут полезны при прогнозных водобалансовых расчетах.

 Comparison of drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the Tien Shan of Kyrgyzstan

and Xinjiang (China) during the last six centuries

Hui-Qin Wang, Feng Chen, Ermenbaev Bakytbek, Satylkanov Rysbek

PII: S1674-9278(16)30044-2

DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.03.004

Abstract

In this study, tree-ring width data of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) from the upper timberline of the Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan) were analyzed to investigate the effect of climate change. Growth–climate response analyses revealed that the tree rings of spruce at the upper timberline of the Tien Shan also can provide hydrometeorological (precipitation and streamflow) signals. Tree-ring records from both Kyrgyzstan and Xinjiang exhibited similar tree-growth variability at both annual and decadal time scales during the common period 1457–2009. In Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan, tree growth was reduced during the Little Ice Age (LIA); however, the timing and magnitude of LIA differ between the two regions. During 1470–1660, the two chronologies diverged, and this phenomenon is considered to be caused by a different response to the harsh climate of the LIA. In this study, the tree-ring width series from the upper tree line of the Tien Shan is negatively associated with temperature. As opposed to previous studies, the tree-ring width series from the upper timberline of the Tien Shan appears to respond well to hydrometeorological factors. Therefore, we highlight the need for more detailed ecophysiological response studies for spruce trees at the upper timberline of the Tien Shan, in particular, with regard to the role of water availability and temperature during the growth season.

forests                                                     

  The Radial Growth of Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) Records the

   Hydro climatic Changes in the Chu River Basin over the Past 175 Years

Ruibo Zhang ^1,2,3,*, Bakytbek Ermenbaev ⁴, Tongwen Zhang ¹, Mamtimin Ali ¹ , Li Qin¹ and

Rysbek Satylkanov ⁴

1 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology of Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830002, China; Zhangtw@idm.cn (T.Z.); Ali@idm.cn (M.A.); Qinhappy@sina.com (L.Q.)

2 Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

3 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

4 Tien-Shan Scientific Center, Institute of Water Problem and Hydropower of National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek 720033, Kyrgyzstan; b.ermenbaev@mail.ru (B.E.); r.satylkanov@gmail.com (R.S.)

* Correspondence: river0511@163.com; Tel.: +86-991-2662971

Received: 5 January 2019; Accepted: 26 February 2019; Published: 2 March 2019

Abstract: The Chu River is one of the most important rivers in arid Central Asia. Its discharge is affected by climate change. Here, we establish a tree-ring chronology for the upper Chu River Basin and analyze the relationships between radial growth, climate, and discharge. The results show that the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is controlled by moisture. We also reconstruct a 175-year standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Chu River Basin. A comparison of the reconstructed and observed indices reveal that 39.5% of the variance occurred during the calibration period of 1952–2014. The SPEI reconstruction and discharge variability of the Chu River show consistent long-term change. They also show that the Chu River Basin became increasingly dry between the 1840s and the 1960s, with a significant drought during the 1970s. A long and rapid wetting period occurred between the 1970s and the 2000s, and was followed by increasing drought since 2004. The change in the SPEI in the Chu River Basin is consistent with records of long-term precipitation, SPEI and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) in other proximate regions of the western Tianshan Mountains. The hydroclimatic change of the Chu River Basin may be associated with westerly wind. This study is helpful for disaster prevention and water resource management in arid central Asia.

Keywords: tree rings; Schrenk spruce (PiceaschrenkianaFisch. et Mey.); hydroclimatology; Chu River; Tianshan Mountains; climate change; Central Asia

Лёд и Снег 2021 Т. 61  № 1

УДК 551.324.43 doi: 10.31857/S2076673421010071

     Реконструкция баланса массы ледника Сары-Тор по метеорологическим данным2021 г.

В.В. Поповнин^1*, А.С. Губанов¹, Р.А. Сатылканов^2,3, Б.О. Эрменбаев²

1 Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова, Москва, Россия;

2 Тянь-Шанский высокогорный научный центр при Институте водных проблем и гидроэнергетики НАН Кыргызской Республики, Бишкек, Республика Кыргызстан;

3 Научно-исследовательский центр экологии и окружающей среды Центральной Азии, Бишкек, Республика Кыргызстан

Mass balance of the Sary-Tor Glacier reproduced from meteorological data

V.V. Popovnin^1*, A.S. Gubanov¹, R.A. Satylkanov^2,3, B.O. Ermenbayev²

1Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; 2Tien Shan alpine research centre, Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower, National

Academy of Sciences, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic; 3Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

Received December 30, 2019 / Revised October 13, 2020 / Accepted December 22, 2020

Keywords: glacier, Ak-Shiyrak, mass balance, reconstruction, monitoring, ablation, accumulation, air temperature, precipitation sum.

Summary

Mass balance bn is the most important indicator of a glacier evolution. However, after the decay of the USSR

direct measurements of bn performed in 1985–1989 in the Inner Tien Shan, including the Sary-Tor Glacier

in Ak-Shiyrak Massif, had been desisted. As a result the available series of the data were limited 1989. Measurements

in this area were renewed only in 2015. This paper is devoted to restoring the continuity of the

mass-balance series over the period of the gap in measurements and extending this series down to 1929, i.e.

to the beginning of regular meteorological observations on the reference HMS Tien Shan (3660 m a.m.s.l.).

Accumulation was reconstructed using a linear relationship of bn with the air temperature and precipitation

sum. Reconstruction of ablation was based on its cubic relationship with the temperature (modified Krenke–

Khodakov formula) or on two-parameter linear approximation using the air temperature and wind velocity.

Thereby, the decade of direct instrumental measurements (1984/85–1988/89 and 2014/15–2018/19) resulted

in deriving and analyzing continuous 90-year-long series of annual values of bn and its constituents, analytical

type of referent glacio-meteorological equations being assumed unchanged in time. Reconstruction for the

Sary-Tor Glacier reveals a dominant trend towards the mass loss with rare and short-time episodes of retarding

the negative tendencies. The comparison made with the long series of mass balance of other glaciers in

Asia indicates a certain degree of synchronicity, which is slightly disturbed in recent years: the degradation of

Sary Tor Glacier tends to progress more intensively. Conclusions about its evolution are particularly relevant

in connection with the assumption about the impact of the Kyrgyz-Canadian gold mining company ≪Kumtor

Gold Company≫ on local ecosystems against the background of its interest in expanding the mining zone to

the bowels of the Earth under the tongue of this glaciological object.

Citation: Popovnin V.V., Gubanov A.S., Satylkanov R.A., Ermenbayev B.O. Mass balance of the Sary-Tor Glacier reproduced from meteorological data.

Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2021. 61 (1): 58–74. [In Russian]. doi: 10.31857/S2076673421010071.

Поступила 30 декабря 2019 г. / После доработки 13 октября 2020 г. / Принята к печати 22 декабря 2020 г.

Ключевые слова: ледник, Ак-Шийрак, баланс массы, реконструкция, мониторинг, абляция, аккумуляция, температура воздуха, сумма осадков.

По длинным рядам метеоданных ГМС Тянь-Шань восстановлены годовые значения аккумуляции,

абляции и баланса массы долинного ледника Сары-Тор в массиве Ак-Шийрак. В основе поиска зави‑

симостей – прямые гляциологические измерения в 1980-е и 2010-е годы. Реконструкция позволила

заполнить пробел между этими периодами и продлить ряд до 1930 г. Результаты сравниваются с

более ранними реконструкциями, а также с длинными балансовыми рядами опорных ледников Азии.

 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006269

The Productivity of Low-Elevation Juniper Forests in Central Asia Increased Under Moderate Warming Scenarios

Feng Chen1,2 , Shulong Yu2, Huaming Shang2, Ruibo Zhang2, Tongwen Zhang2, Heli Zhang1, Youping Chen1,2, Rysbek Satylkanov3, Bakytbek Ermenbaev3, Zainalobudin Kobuliev4, Ahsan Ahmadov4, Anvar Kodirov4 , and Bagila Maisupova5

1 Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China,

2 Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China,

3 Tien-Shan Mountain Scientific Center, Institute of Water Problems and Hydro Power, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan,

4 Institute of Water Problems, Hydroenergy and Ecology, Academy of Science of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan,

5 Almaty Branch of Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Forestry, Ministries of Agriculture, Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Abstract Clear trends of warming and wetting have occurred in Central Asia during the last

30 years, but how tree growth in low-elevation mountainous areas has responded to climate warming

remains unclear. In this paper, we investigated the relationships between Zeravschan juniper (Juniperus

seravschanica) growth and climate factors based on 16 tree-ring chronologies from low-elevation

mountainous areas across Central Asia and then used the resulting model to predict changes in

Zeravschan juniper growth during the 21st century. Zeravschan juniper growth in our study region

is mainly controlled by precipitation, which is predominantly influenced by tropical sea surface

temperatures. The combination of increased precipitation and warm temperatures promoted the growth

of Zeravschan juniper during the recent warm period. Our simulations suggest that Zeravschan juniper

growth will still increase slightly under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the next 30 years, possibly

due to increased precipitation caused by climate warming; however, climate warming will initially show

negative effects and is expected to have greater effects after the 2050s. Better knowledge regarding regional

climate mechanisms and their likely influences on tree growth is useful for improving forest planning andmanagement in Central Asia.